I’m already on the record with my students with this, so I figure I might as well embarrass myself in front of the world.

I was on the fence with Indiana and Missouri, but I think that Obama’s grandmother dying will give him enough of a "sympathy vote" to get those two.

Possible McCain flips: Missouri and Indiana
McCain dark horses: North Carolina and Florida
Possible Obama flips: Montana and North Dakota
Obama dark horses: Georgia and Arizona

Given that Obama will get 73 guaranteed electoral votes at 2300 Eastern when Washington, Oregon, and California all close their polls, I think that will be the moment when most news networks declare him the winner. In my model it’s theoretically possible for Obama to win before then, but I think enough states will be too close to call before then. He’ll definitely be at 200 before 2300 Eastern, though. (Given how likely an Obama victory is at this point, I think the networks will call states much more quickly than they did in 2004.)

Yes, I’m still voting for Ralph Nader, thanks for asking.