posted 2007/10/01 at 20:52
Conservatives consider 3rd-party run (AP via Yahoo! News)
I kind of half-expected that there would be a conservative backlash coming up as we got closer to primary season and Giuliani was still polling at the top of the Republican candidates. I don't think the timing of this is coincidental, either; even though I know that this conference had been planned for some time, I doubt we would have seen the kind of harsh rhetoric that came out if it if Gingrich hadn't dropped out of any potential run earlier. I honestly thought that Gingrich was going to come in and swoop up the nomination because he could unify the more religious element of the Republican party with those who were looking for Giuliani-like name recognition, but that's all out the window now.
Of course now this raises the question of just what the Republican Party will do in response to this. In the past there's hardly been a big stink raised by Republican operatives of votes going to Libertarian candidates being "wasted," or at least not anything approaching the vitriol that Democrats have thrown at Green/Nader voters over the past seven years. (For that matter, you hardly hear any talk at all about the Constitution Party, which would likely be the best home for the Religious Right if they leave the Republican fold.) Given the huge numbers of self-identified Religious Right voters, particularly in key Southern states that should be considered "in play" for '08 after the midterm elections, this kind of split would all but guarantee a Democrat in the White House in 2009. If Karl Rove wasn't already masterminding the Republicans' presidential campaign after leaving the White House, Republicans are probably banging down his door now to try to get him to fix this huge problem that is just now surfacing on the major newswires and political television shows.
This would be a lot more satisfying were it not for Democrats racing towards nominating Clinton. (As much as I think it's absurd to be talking like the tickets are already determined this early in the campaign season -- remember how likely it seemed that Dean would be the Democratic candidate at this point four years ago -- it's hard not to bet against Clinton right now because the Clintons just don't make political mistakes.) Particularly given how ineffective congressional Democrats have been since they regained the majority -- witness the continued war funding and the sad state of affairs over the MoveOn.org ad -- you would hope that truly liberal Democrats would break from the party in equal numbers this next year and help give the Green Party as much legitimacy at it gained after Nader's showing in 2000. More than anything, you would hope that this would be the year that America has a giant epiphany about how absurd our two-party system is and we finally get a strong multi-party system in place, but for some reason I just don't see that happening.
copyright © 2008 Sean Shannon